Progressive's Pain May Turn To Gain As Tariff Inflation Creates A Surprising Tailwind

Over the past three weeks, shares of Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) have declined by 8%, underperforming the S&P 500 by more than 1,000 basis points, according to BofA Securities.

The Progressive Analyst: Analyst Joshua Shanker upgraded the rating from Neutral to Buy, while raising the price target from $297 to $312.

The Progressive Thesis: Earlier this month, the company announced its March 2025 results, adding a net 572,000 new personal auto customers, representing a month of the highest growth in its history, Shankar said in the upgrade note.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

"It remains to be seen to what degree tariffs will be implemented by the Trump administration, creating uncertainty," the analyst wrote.

Shankar pointed out that supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods resulted in the steepest auto insurance price hikes in 50 years, boosting profitability and market share gains for Progressive. Similarly tariff-induced inflation may act as "a tailwind to Progressive’s success and PGR stock performance," he further stated.

PGR Price Action: Shares of Progressive had risen by 1.7% to $274.19 at the time of publication on Tuesday.

Read More:

• Dividend Investor Making $6,000/Month Shares Portfolio; Bought More on Recent ‘Bloody Day’ Selloff — ‘Keep Grinding Until We Don’t Have To’

Photo: Shutterstock