HTML5 Could Kill the App Store By 2015

Was this Apple's plan all along?

Today, the Mac and iPhone maker hates compact discs and DVDs. The company is so determined to get us off traditional software that it is practically forcing consumers to buy Mac OS X Lion online.

Tomorrow, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is going to hate downloads. This is inevitable. When that day comes, the company is going to need a way to convert consumers to its cloud-only offerings. But rather than convert us last-minute, why not spend the next few years training us instead?

That's just what seems to be happening. While Apple has been pushing the App Store to the general public, it has quietly been touting the benefits of HTML5. Now Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst with Sanford Bernstein, speculates that if HTML5 takes off, it could potentially displace some apps – not just for Apple but for Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android as well.

“Ultimately over time, a significant migration away from native apps to webapps could have meaningful repercussions for the mobile industry: users would gain portability of apps across devices, and the browser would assume an increasingly important role for users at the expense of the device's OS,” Sacconaghi wrote in a report, as noted by Barron's. “This would reduce differentiation among the user experience across devices, lower barriers to switching and accordingly, heighten handset competition – pressuring margins.”

Sacconaghi says that while consumers seem to value the “improved user experience” of today's downloadable apps, they may be less enthused if webapps can one day mirror the quality of traditional applications.

“Rough scenario analyses says that even a modest impact in each of these areas could cut our estimated operating profit growth forecast for Apple through 2015 by about 30%, from roughly 19% compounded annual growth rate today to 13%,” Sacconaghi wrote.

But if this is indeed Apple's fate (remember: it's only speculation at this point), why would the company support HTML5 at all?

The answer is simple: because Apple is planning to make HTML5-based apps its next business.

Follow me @LouisBedigian