Stifel Introduces 'LaBarometer,' A Monthly Metric Tracking Low-Income Consumers

Taylor LaBarr of Stifel introduced on Monday a new tracking metric called “LaBarometer” that attempts to quantity the “changing financial pressures on low-income consumers.”

The results from the monthly metric could provide investors with potential impacts on sales at Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG), Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) and other retailers that sell specifically to low-income consumers.

LaBarr notes that his analyst team will use a “boots on the ground” approach and will visit stores throughout important selling days, including the first-of-the-month when SNAP/EBT payments recycle.

“We believe low-income household budgets are feeling notably healthier in October (pressure easing), driven by a combination of more hours worked and falling energy prices,” LaBarr wrote in a note on Monday.

In addition to the “LaBarometer,” LaBarr utilizes a “Macro Indicator of Dollar Store Sales,” or MIDSS, as a predictor of dollar-store comps. The analyst notes that the indicator rose to 3.3 percent in the third quarter, suggesting a “healthy topline” trend at dollar stores.

LaBarr expects Dollar General and Dollar Tree comps to outperform Family Dollar in the third quarter.