What Morgan Stanley Is Watching In Tesla's Earnings

In a report published Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas previewed Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)'s upcoming first quarter results.

Jonas estimated the company will report a non-GAAP earnings per share of ($0.77) versus the consensus estimate of ($0.48). Non-GAAP total gross margins is expected to rise to 25.0 percent from 22.1 percent previously.

The Estimize consensus earnings per share is $0.09, the Estimize consensus revenue is $1.160 billion; the number of estimates included in this consensus is 37. The Street estimate is calling for an earnings per share of ($0.51) on revenue of $1.032 billion.

Tesla already pre-announced it has delivered 10,030 Model S units in the first quarter, so the focus will be on the company's commentary over its upcoming Model X launch.

"Heading into the earnings call, we continue to look for more details surrounding Model X execution – in particular, launch timing, speed of ramp and order back log," Jonas wrote. "Given the significance of this launch, we don't expect Tesla to cut any corners and believe Elon Musk and management are fully willing to sacrifice short-term profitability (via higher-than-expected up-front costs) to ensure a successful debut."

Related Link: How The New Model S Will Impact Tesla's Sales And Stock

Looking forward to the full fiscal year, Jonas is estimating Tesla will deliver approximately 51,000 units, falling short of the company's 55,000 unit guidance. The analyst added that he continues to expect the Model X to launch in the third quarter with deliveries of just 100 units followed by a large ramp in the fourth quarter with 3,000 units.

In fiscal 2016, the company is expected to earn $1.40 per share versus the consensus estimate of $3.99.

Shares remain Overweight rated with a $280 price target.