Bank Of America: Tableau Software Will Reach $6 Billion Revenue Base In 10 Years

In a report published Monday, Bank of America analyst Brad Sills argued that Tableau Software Inc (NYSE: DATA) will reach a $6 billion revenue base in 10 years from an estimated $614 million in fiscal 2015.

Sills noted that his assumptions in constructing Tableau's long-term revenue models are based on "relatively conservative" assumptions on market penetration (2 percent of the addressable 183 million global professional population today), server attach (39 percent up from 28 percent in 2014) and average selling price growth for both desktop license (flat from $1,500) and server license ($118,000 down from $127,000).

"We continue to believe that Tableau is redefining the BI market much like salesforce.com redefined the CRM market 10 years ago," Sills wrote. "With a pilot implementation measured in hours not months and a highly intuitive visual interface, Tableau represents the first viable business intelligence offering for small/mid-sized businesses and middle management in large enterprises, representing an additional 1x to 2x the existing market ($15 billion)."

Sills said the BI market has "intensified" as of late with new entrants including Salesforce (wave) and Qlik (Sense). Nevertheless, the market is expanding enough to support growth for all three vendors. Naturally, the heightened competitive landscape poses a risk to Tableau and it is not clear if the company will extend into other software categories, which the analyst suggested is necessary to sustain future growth.

Shares of Tableau remain Buy rated with a price target raised to $135 from a previous $120.