Bank Of America: New Eli Lilly Data Is 'Game-Changing'

Eli Lilly and Co released data during the EASD conference showing that treatment with the company's SGLT2 inhibitor, Jardiance (empagliflozin), resulted in a 14 percent reduction in CV risk (3-point MACE; primary endpoint) in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial.

What The Results Indicate

Commenting on the results, Colin Bristow of Bank of America noted that the magnitude of the benefit is above the 10 percent minimum KOLs believed to be necessary for clinical significance. The analyst added that "more importantly," the 14 percent CV risk reduction was driven by a "highly impressive" 38 percent reduction in CV death.

Bristow continued that "equally as impressive" were the reductions in all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to heart failure, each of which KOLs viewed as paradigm changing.

Related Link: Eli Lilly's Home Run Is Jardiance, Says Morgan Stanley

Bristow added that the data exceeded his already "bullish expectations" and should be considered as a "major positive" for the company. Moreover, the results are expected to result in a "meaningful" class growth, with Jardiance benefiting "significantly" compared to its peers given the next SGLT2 to show CV data will be Invokana in the first half of 2017.

Updates

Finally, Bristow is updating his peak Jardiance WW sales estimate given the "outstanding data" to $3.5 billion from a previous $950 million in 2020.

Bottom line, Bristow reaffirmed Eli Lilly as his top-pick within the U.S. Major Pharma group given its "underappreciated" pipeline and "catalyst-rich" 12 months ahead.

Shares remain Buy rated with a price target raised to $108 from a previous $101.

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