Barclays Offers 'Survey Of The Seas,' Lifts Targets On Cruise Lines

Felicia Hendrix, Barclays' U.S. leisure analyst, detailed the findings from her proprietary "Survey of the Seas" publication, which tracked over 125 itineraries across North American cruise brands and conversations with industry experts.

The survey functions as a "directional tool for identifying inflection points in cruise prices as opposed to estimating absolute changes in company level net yields on a quarterly basis."

Here are the analyst's main points:

Key Takeaways

1. Pricing Strength Winners: Of all the brands tracked, Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) showed the strongest increases in year over year pricing. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE: RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: NCLH) saw improved pricing as well, but to "a lesser extent."

Overall, pricing continues to "strengthen" across most brands, giving the analyst increased confidence that the guided 3–4 percent net yield growth for 2015 provided by several cruise operators should be "easily achievable."

Related Link: Princess Cruises "3 For Free" Sale Offers Three Special Cruise Savings

2. Q3 Year-Over-Year Pricing: For the third quarter 2015, average year-over-year pricing improved three points to +9 percent from the August survey. The most significant year-over-year price increases were seen at Carnival (24 percent), Princess Cruises (10 percent) and Norwegian (10 percent).

3. Q4 Year-Over-Year Pricing: For the fourth quarter 2015, average year-over-year pricing improved two points to +9 percent from the August survey. The most significant price increases were seen at Norwegian (40 percent) and Princess (12 percent), driven by newer hardware.

4. 2016 Q1 Year-Over-Year Pricing: For the first quarter 2016, average year-over-year pricing improved three points to +6 percent. Overall pricing reflected a "wide dispersion" across the main brands, with Norwegian brand pricing higher by 19 percent year-over-year and Caribbean brand pricing lower by 17 percent year-over-year.

However, the analyst pointed that it is still "very early" in the booking window, and the cruise companies use a variety of different tactics to base load.

5. Booking Changes: Sequential changes over the third-quarter booking window improved one point from August's survey results, while fourth-quarter sequential prices were unchanged.

6. Average Pricing By Region: Finally, by region, third quarter average pricing rose by double-digits year-over-year in Alaska, in the Bahamas and in the Caribbean, while average European prices (North America sources) are lower by 8 percent year-over-year.

Price Target Changes

Shares of Carnival remain Equal Weight rated with a price target raised to $53 from a previous $48.

Shares of Norwegian remain Overweight rated with a price target raised to $71 from a previous $67.

Shares of Royal Caribbean remain Overweight rated with a price target raised to $107 from a previous $98.

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