Disney's 'Star Wars' Has Box Office On Track To Hit MKM's Q4 Estimates

• Shares of Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS), IMAX Corporation (USA) (NYSE: IMAX) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) have declined by high single-digit percentage since November 30.
• MKM Partners' Eric Handler maintained Buy ratings on both IMAX and AMC, with price targets at $44 and $40, respectively.
• Most of the top 10 films beat estimates and the box office should gross more than $11bn in 2015, Handler stated.

“Star Wars: The Force Awakens continued its record run and helped drive the box office to the second highest three day weekend of all time,” analyst Eric Handler wrote.

The top ten movies grossed $278n over the weekend, representing a jump of more than 54 percent. This was ahead of MKM’s estimate of $209mn. The beat was driven mainly by “the ongoing strength” of The Force Awakens and “a surprising opening” from Daddy's Home, Handler said.

The Force Awakens delivered a second weekend record of $154mn, which beat the MKM forecast of $125mn as well as Jurassic World’s $107mn record set in June 2015. Daddy's Home delivered $38.8mn, topped the MKM estimate of $18.0mn.

In all, nine of the top ten movies grossed revenues ahead of the MKM projections, with only Point Break falling short.

“The record breaking strength of The Force Awakens has erased all concerns that the 4Q box office would fall short of our/consensus projected growth of 10%-12%. QTD box office revenue is now up 9.4% and should continue to improve into year end,” Handler commented.

So far in 2015, the box office is only $114mn short of $11bn. The analyst expects the box office to cross the $11bn mark by December 29 or 30.