Weekend Movies Stronger Than Forecast, Still Short Of Last Year

Although weekend box office revenues topped expectations, the box office was down double-digits against last year's tough comps, MKM Partners’ Eric Handler said in a report. He added that comps would continue to be tough in Q1 2017.

Over the weekend, the top 10 films generated a total revenue of $147 million, handsomely beating the estimate of $132 million, although being down 16 percent year-over-year. The beat was driven by a number of movies, including "Hidden Figures," "Sing," "La La Land," "The Bye Bye Man" and "Monster Trucks," with "Patriots Day" being the only movie to underperform expectations.

“In total, the weekend was well balanced with seven films topping the $10 million mark,” Handler wrote.

The Top 5

Handler mentioned the revenues generated by the top five films over the weekend:

1. "Hidden Figures": $26 million, versus expectation of $20 million.
2. "Sing": $19.2 million, versus estimate of $16 million.
3. "La La Land": $17.5 million, ahead of the $11.5 million projection.
4. "Rogue One": $17.1 million, versus expectation of $16 million.
5. "The Bye Bye Man": $15.3 million, compared to the $9 million estimate.

The weekend global box office results of IMAX Corporation (USA) (NYSE: IMAX) is estimated at ~$30 million, up from $22.5 million on January 8. “From this total, we project revenue from the U.S. and non-China international markets is approaching $21 million with another $9 million coming from China,” the analyst commented.

Handler has a Buy rating and $40 price target for IMAX and a Buy rating and $45 price target for AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC).

Q1 Expectations

Box office revenue is down 9 percent quarter-to-date. “We continue to believe January and February should be down before seeing a return to growth in March,” the analyst commented.