The Easter Bunny Brought Mondelez A Better-Than-Expected Q1

Investors will react positively to Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ: MDLZ) first-quarter earnings because they break a pattern of missed expectations and beat competitors’ performance, according to Credit Suisse.

The snack food maker posted organic sales growth of 0.6 percent and and a $0.53 EPS on Tuesday, thanks to an “unexpected” boost in Easter shipments, analyst Robert Moskow said in a note.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform on Mondelez with a $50 price target. It was reported in April that Mondelez might be moving to replace CEO Irene Rosenfeld.

A Weaker Sales Picture In North America

The maker of snacks such as Oreo, Chips Ahoy! And Triscuit experienced a “quicker than expected” recovery in the Indian market in Q1, Moskow said, but saw a 1.9 percent drop in organic sales in North America.

The head of Mondelez’ North American division has been replaced, according to Credit Suisse.

The company’s Nabisco business had been “lagging the category and failing to capitalize sufficiently on its direct-store distribution system, iconic brands and the new flexible manufacturing lines that provide price-pack architecture optionality.”

The change in division leadership could be a sign that Mondelez will operate its direct-store distribution system “on a tighter leash” while reviewing whether to switch to a warehouse-delivered system, Moskow said.

He expects the North American market to “remain weak” for Mondelez in the second quarter.

Success In Emerging Markets

Mondelez’ reported a 3.5 percent sales increase in emerging markets — India, Mexico and southeast Asia — while European sales rose 1 percent.

The company’s business in China declined in Q1, but Mondelez’ management “expects performance to improve in the back half with the relaunch of the Oreos brand,” Moskow said.

Sales in Latin America grew 3.7 percent, but volume there declined 2.7 percent, according to Credit Suisse.

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