Box Office Preview: 'Insidious' Unlikely To Crack Top Of The Box Office

Not much to report at the box office this weekend, according to MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler.

Handler expects the weekend’s top 10 films to gross $120 million on par with the comparable period from last year.

“The lack of growth versus last year is attributable to a lack of meaningful box office business from awards season titles such as the 1Q17 surprises ‘Hidden Figures’ and ‘La La Land,’” Handler said in a note. “This issue may change a bit next weekend with the wide release of ‘The Post’ but at the moment ‘Molly's Game,’ ‘Darkest Hour’ and ‘Phantom Thread’ do not have the same appeal as last year's successes.”

Weekend Forecasts

This weekend, MKM foresees Columbia Pictures’ (Sony Corp (ADR) (NYSE: SNE)) “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” grossing $31 million domestically to outperform Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS)’s “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” ($27 million).

Universal Studios’ (Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA)) new release, “Insidious: The Last Key,” is expected to rank third at the box office with $17.5 million, down 23 percent from “Insidious Chapter 3”’s 2015 opening. “The Greatest Showman” ($10 million) and “Pitch Perfect 3” ($8 million) are seen to round out the top five.

“The Last Jedi” will open this weekend in its final market, China, but it may not be entirely significant to the film’s global performance.

“The Star Wars series has not proven overly dynamic in China,” Handler wrote. Last year’s “Rogue One” posted an underwhelming $30.1 million opening weekend leading to an ultimate gross of $69.5 million.

Quarterly Estimates

“The year is starting off with its most challenging quarter,” Handler said, anticipating a 10-percent year-over-year slip to $2.62 billion.

The drop includes a flat to slightly higher January, a low- to mid-single-digit decline in February, and a more than 20-percent slide in March.

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