Nabriva Analysts Bullish After FDA OKs Antibiotic; BofA Sees $200M Sales Potential

The FDA approved Nabriva Therapeutics PLC – ADR (NASDAQ: NBRV)'s lead antibiotic asset, Xenleta, on Monday for the treatment of community-acquired bacterial infections. 

The Analysts

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Jason Gerberry reiterated a Buy rating on Nabriva and raised the price target from $5 to $6.

Wedbush analyst Robert Driscoll maintained an Outperform rating and hiked the price target from $5 to $7.

BofA Sees $200M Peak Xenleta Sales Potential 

Given Xenleta's differentiated profile, its novel antibiotic mechanism and an oral-only regimen without the need for an intravenous initiation, peak sales are estimated at $200 million, Gerberry said in a Tuesday note.

This compares favorably to other brand antibiotic launches in the last decade approved for acute treatment of infections, the analyst said. 

Gerberry named the following takeaways from Nabriva's conference call: 

• A focus on patients eligible for early discharge from the emergency room and hospital with an oral dosing.
• A target of older patients with comorbidity, and/or who have been exposed to prior antibiotics, as they are generally resistant to older, generic antibiotics.
• Reimbursement is initially through MS DRG, starting October, and eligible for expanded reimbursement with add-on payment starting in October 2020.

BofA projects that approval for Contepo — a follow-on antibiotic asset for urinary tract infections  — will materialize in mid-2020.

Wedbush: Stock Undervalued 

Xenleta's profile is well suited for the treatment of CABP, given its favorable safety and efficacy profile, a narrow but CABP-targeted spectrum and flexible IV to oral/oral dosing, Driscoll said in a Tuesday note. 

"With recent favorable changes to the reimbursement landscape and a clear plan in place for lefamulin commercialization, plus clarification around second asset CONTEPO NDA resubmission timelines, we believe NBRV shares are currently undervalued," the analyst said. 

Price Action

Nabriva shares were rallying by 1.29% at $2.24 at the time of publication. 

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