Macau And Las Vegas Gaming Revenues Are Headed In Opposite Directions: What's Next?

Las Vegas, Nevada, and Macau, China, are two of the largest global casino gambling hubs. Both gaming destinations took big hits during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the latest gross gaming revenue numbers suggest Vegas is bouncing back strong while Macau is still struggling.

The Numbers: Many Americans think of Vegas as the top gambling destination, but Macau’s gross gaming revenue dwarfs Las Vegas. Unfortunately for Macau investors, its gross gaming revenue is still roughly 70% below 2019 levels, according to Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley. Meanwhile, Las Vegas GGR is up 30% from pre-pandemic 2019 levels, suggesting the worst of the pandemic is now in the rear-view mirror.

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On Monday, Kelley said he models fourth-quarter Las Vegas GGR growth of 17% for MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) and 10% for Caesars Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ: CZR) compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, Kelley is also modeling fourth-quarter Macau GGR to be down roughly 60% from 2019 levels for Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) and Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN).

Macau Headwinds: In addition to sluggish gaming revenues, Macau is also suffering from negative investor sentiment after 10 casino junket officials were recently arrested.

“This development, in our view, is more of a crackdown/intervention risk than the concession process from back in September, but is yet another example of the 3 C’s (COVID, crackdown and concession) risks that make Macau difficult for investors at the moment,” Kelley said following the arrests.

Prior to COVID-19, VIP gaming represented 46% of Macau’s total gross gaming revenue, Kelley said. As of the third quarter, that percentage had dropped to 34%.

Benzinga’s Take: Gaming investors looking for less risk in the space should take a closer look at U.S. stocks that have no exposure to Macau. Kelley recently named several of his top gaming stock picks heading into 2022, including Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE: BYD), Churchill Downs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CHDN) and Caesars Entertainment.

Photo by Susan Q Yin on Unsplash