Plug Power's $20 Billion Revenue Ambition Faces Obstacles, Analyst Says

Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ:PLUG) has big dreams for a green hydrogen-powered future, but it might hit some potholes before reaching that destination.

JPMorgan's Bill Peterson brings a cautiously balanced view, signaling that while Plug Power's ambitions shine bright, the near-term realities could dampen the sparkle for investors. As we speed toward the company's third-quarter earnings call on Nov. 12 and its annual Plug Symposium on Nov. 13, expectations are mixed, with both high hopes and real risks.

Watch For Roadblocks Heading Into H2

Plug Power has set its sights high, predicting substantial growth in its hydrogen-driven Energy business and aiming to double revenue in the second half of 2024.

However, hitting these targets will require a serious acceleration in sales—especially in the softer material handling sector and a reliable revenue boost in electrolyzer equipment. But with a sluggish U.S. hydrogen market and the 45V tax credit still a question mark, this quarter's results may land below expectations, with Plug likely to fall short of the high double-digit growth needed to meet the lower end of its guidance range, the analyst said.

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The Symposium Spotlight: A Blueprint For Long-Term Growth

At the upcoming Plug Symposium, management is expected to emphasize its roadmap beyond quarterly earnings.

Plug Power could unveil its vision for reaching $20 billion in revenue by 2030, a bold ambition that Peterson considers likely to face practical constraints. While the Symposium may inspire with case studies in hydrogen applications and potential growth in mobility and stationary power, Plug will need to prove its green hydrogen network can yield real profits, especially as global interest in hydrogen faces increasing skepticism around commercial viability.

Short-Term Jitters With A Dash Of Optimism

Plug Power's short-term outlook carries a dose of volatility, partly fueled by ongoing political uncertainty. The company may reiterate its guidance, but Peterson remains unconvinced it's achievable, seeing risks in the 2024 market landscape.

Although PLUG stock's 28% short interest reflects broad market wariness, a clear policy signal or an unexpected DOE loan closure could still spark some interest. For now, though, Plug is under pressure to execute margin improvements and make tangible progress on cash flow management before it can comfortably court long-term investors.

Staying Neutral, But Watching The Horizon

JPMorgan's Peterson is staying neutral on PLUG, balancing near-term headwinds with the potential long-term upside if hydrogen gains a foothold.

While Plug Power's green hydrogen goals are audacious, the company faces cash flow and demand challenges that can't be overlooked.

For investors, the message is clear: stay buckled up for a bumpy ride, and don't lose sight of the possible rewards if Plug Power can overcome its hurdles and secure a sustainable path forward in the green hydrogen revolution.

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