Qualcomm's China Tailwind: Analyst Sees Positives That 'Overwhelm' Apple Concerns

Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) may be losing Apple Inc's (NASDAQ:AAPL) business, but it's gaining something even juicier—momentum. Analyst Samik Chatterjee is betting that booming Chinese smartphone sales and Samsung share gains will drown out Apple-related worries, at least for now.

"We see positives for Qualcomm around the earnings print that would serve to overwhelm the overarching concern relative to the loss of Apple revenues," Chatterjee noted.

China's Smartphone Boom: A Win For Qualcomm

Chinese smartphone makers are flexing their muscle and Qualcomm is riding the wave. "The positive in our view stems from the robust growth evidenced for Chinese smartphone OEMs in the most recent quarter… with Qualcomm benefitting from its high content opportunities."

Government subsidies are fueling this surge, especially in the mid-tier market. "Continued robust growth for Chinese Smartphone OEMs led by share gains in the region and partly helped by the recent subsidies," Chatterjee added.

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Samsung's Surprise & AI Ambitions

It's not just China giving Qualcomm a boost. Samsung's Galaxy S25 could bring more good news. "There remains a high likelihood of potential share gains for Qualcomm on the flagship Samsung Galaxy S25, displacing Exynos."

Long term, Chatterjee sees Qualcomm carving out a dominant role in AI-powered edge devices. "We expect the focus to shift from the loss of Apple revenue back to the underlying robust content drivers… with Qualcomm benefitting from its innovation."

Bigger Estimates, Same $200 Target

With these tailwinds, Chatterjee is raising his first quarter estimates, forecasting $11.1 billion in revenue (above the $10.9 billion consensus) and EPS of $3.03 (versus $2.96). The second quarter is also set to benefit from Chinese smartphone strength, with revenue projected at $10.7 billion, topping the $10.3 billion consensus.

"We expect robust trends for Chinese smartphone OEMs to continue led by the support to the smartphone unit outlook from the consumer subsidies," he noted.

Despite the bullish earnings outlook, Chatterjee is holding firm on his December 2025 price target of $200. "Although we maintain our Dec-25 price target of $200… to reflect the opportunity for an earnings multiple re-rating."

With Qualcomm riding a Chinese smartphone surge and gunning for more Samsung business, the stock could have more upside than investors expect. Whether that's enough to hit $200 is up for debate, but Chatterjee sees a catalyst worth watching.

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