Joby, Archer: Flying Cars On A $1 Trillion Runway, But Still Not Cleared For Takeoff

Flying cars – technically, electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, or eVTOLs – are inching closer to liftoff. But for investors in names like Joby Aviation Inc (NYSE:JOBY) and Archer Aviation Inc (NYSE:ACHR), JPMorgan's latest insight is clear: the long-term runway looks promising, but near-term turbulence is hard to avoid.

JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson, after a conversation with McKinsey's Robin Riedel, said the eVTOL dream is alive—just not quite ready for boarding. Commercial service may begin in the next 12–18 months, but mass adoption likely won't arrive until the mid-2030s. The market could top $1 trillion down the line, but initial revenues are expected to hover in the premium niche—think high-end urban air mobility, priced like Uber Black.

That modest start comes with high-stakes hurdles: regulatory certification, vertiport buildout, and propulsion tech reliability. Joby and Archer are making headway—Joby with successful test flights, and Archer inching toward piloted trials. Still, certification remains a heavy lift.

Joby Lands A Lift From Toyota

One tailwind for Joby came this week via a $250 million boost from Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE:TM), closing the first tranche of a strategic investment meant to support certification and commercial production. The capital also strengthens their long-term manufacturing alliance.

"With this capital and Toyota's legendary production expertise, we're enhancing our ability to scale," said Joby CEO JoeBen Bevirt, noting the progress already made streamlining design and production with Toyota's help.

Read Also: Archer Aviation (ACHR) Stock Retreats After Strong Rally: What’s Going On?

Archer Hit By Short Seller Turbulence

Meanwhile, Archer faces headwinds. Short seller Culper Research accused the company of misleading investors with exaggerated claims about its Midnight Edition eVTOL. Culper questioned the aircraft's transition flight performance and called its commercialization timeline "reckless."

JPMorgan remains cautious. Overseas players—especially in China and the Middle East—may outpace U.S. firms due to aligned governments and deeper funding.

And while trillion-dollar headlines grab attention, JPMorgan sees a smaller, slower takeoff in the near term.

The sky’s the limit, but Joby and Archer aren't cleared for cruising altitude just yet.

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