Mobileye Lands VW Deal For Advanced Driving Tech, Paving Way To Higher Margins, Market Share: Analyst

On Wednesday, Needham analyst Quinn Bolton reiterated Mobileye Global Inc (NASDAQ:MBLY) with a Buy and a $20 price target.

Mobileye announced its first Surround ADAS design win with Volkswagen AG (OTC:VWAGY) and Valeo SE – ADR (OTC:VLEEY) as Tier 1.

Bolton noted this as a step forward in the company’s monetization strategy.

Also Read: Mobileye Gains Analyst Upgrade On 2025 Catalysts, But Profit Delays And Competition Keep Rating Neutral

According to the analyst, surround ADAS provides OEMs with another step (at higher ASPs) towards advanced autonomy and the SV (Single Volume) and CAV (Constant Air Volume) solutions.

Management noted that this feature set can become the future ADAS standard, he highlighted.

Bolton noted this scenario is more likely in the EU, where GSR frameworks and NCAP initiatives are moving advanced ADAS trends faster than in the U.S.

From a competitive perspective, Bolton noted it marked the first instance of an OEM relying on one supplier for a complete software stack for L2+ functions and advanced safety, as well as every L2+ software and functions deployed on one SoC in a consolidated ECU, which points to Mobileye’s ability to integrate advanced functions with OEM’s trust.

Bolton expects units in calendar 2027, so this model is unchanged.

Volkswagen announced its next-generation MQB platform would be L2+ enabled and will feature hardware and software technology from Tier 1 partner Valeo and Tier 2 partner Mobileye.

Mobileye will deliver its EyeQ6 High SoC, which marks its first design award for its Surround ADAS system.

The EyeQ6 High SoC will cater to computer vision perception, REM mapping, sensor fusion, driving policy and many more ADAS safety-related functions.

Valeo will supply ECUs, sensors, parking software and integration services. ASPs are in the $150-$200 range versus Base ADAS at ~$50, Cloud Enhanced at ~$85 and full SuperVision (SV) at ~$1,200.

Assuming Mobileye maintains a high Volkswagen share and achieves ~30% Surround ADAS volumes, calendar 2027 Blended ASPs move to nearly ~$60 from ~$55 Y/Y, all else equal.

Surround ADAS looks to solve automakers’ dilemma when selecting a driving assistance system today, either choosing basic ADAS and maintaining affordability or going with a more advanced system that results in a cost fit only for premium models, per the analyst.

Surround ADAS is a vertically integrated software-defined hands-off, eyes-on driving solution using Mobileye’s software stack. It runs on a single EyeQ 6 High SoC.

Using AI, multiple cameras and radars, totaling up to 11 sensors, can be run by a single ECU. This marks the first time deployment of L2+ software and functions on one SoC on a consolidated ECU. Also, instead of using inputs from multiple suppliers like most current generation systems today, this is the first time an OEM relies on one supplier to do the entire software stack for L2+ functions and advanced safety.

Surround ADAS also allows OEMs to support future NCAP, high-function Highway Pilot, and smart parking in one vertically integrated package, all at a cost suitable for mass-market vehicles.

Bolton projected first-quarter revenue of $437.5 million and adjusted EPS of $0.06.

MBLY Price Action: MBLY stock is down 3.56% at $15.99 at publication Wednesday.

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Photo: Courtesy Mobileye