Q4 Feast Ahead? Analysts Bet On Olive Garden To Boost Darden

Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE:DRI) shares are trading slightly lower on Wednesday.

The company will release its fourth-quarter financial results before the market opens on Friday, June 20.

Here are the analysts’ takes on the stock before the earnings release:

• Truist Securities analyst Jake Bartlett reiterated the Buy rating on the stock, raising the price forecast from $230 to $252.
• Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner reiterated the Outperform rating on the stock, rating the price forecast from $230 to $250.

Truist Securities: According to Bartlett, Darden is set up favorably ahead of its fourth-quarter results, predicting a beat and strong fiscal year 2026 guidance — though some of that may already be priced in, given the stock’s 20.4% year-to-date return rise versus 1.7% for the S&P.

Also Read: Darden Restaurants Gears Up For Q4 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analysts

Truist card data indicates Olive Garden’s same-store sales rose 6.5% in the quarter, topping the 4.5% consensus and likely exceeding investor expectations.

The firm is likely to reaffirm its long-term goal of 10%–15% total shareholder return, with more focus on new store openings than margin expansion, Bartlett notes.

The analyst has raised its fourth quarter same-store sales (SSS) estimate to +4.5% and EPS forecast to $3.02, up from +3.7% and $2.93, both above the consensus of +3.6% and $2.96.

Bartlett projects restaurant-level margins at 22.8%, a 60bps year-over-year increase and ahead of the 22.7% consensus.

For FY26, the blended SSS forecast is raised to +3.8% and EPS to $11.05, from +3.5% and $10.92, respectively.

Olive Garden’s sales trends appear to be benefiting from delivery growth, aided by recent advertising.

A significant SSS beat is expected for Olive Garden in the fourth quarter, while LongHorn is likely to deliver results in line with expectations, both showing strong momentum heading into the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.

Oppenheimer: Bittner maintains a bullish view on Darden Restaurants heading into the June 20 results, citing continued earnings upside into fiscal year 2026 despite the stock’s year-to-date outperformance and its now-elevated 21x P/E multiple.

The analyst’s confidence is based on proprietary analysis of key sales drivers like Olive Garden delivery and a solid EBIT margin setup, and while he expects the initial fiscal year 2026 EPS guidance to be conservative, it should still frame consensus estimates around $10.77.

Bittner sees Olive Garden, which makes up ~43% of sales, as the biggest swing factor in Darden’s model, with delivery growth and stronger marketing likely to drive SSS above the Street’s +3.3% fiscal year 2026 estimate.

The analyst also considers the Street’s assumptions for LongHorn (+3.5%) and Fine Dining (+1.5%) as reasonable base cases given current trends.

DRI Price Action: Darden shares are trading lower by 0.93% to $222.62 at publication on Wednesday.

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