Tesla's Model YL Takes On Toyota And Ford: Analyst

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is reportedly preparing to introduce a longer, six-seat version of its Model Y sport utility vehicle in China.

The news comes after Tesla reported a 75% plunge in sales in China during the first week of July as the company recorded 5,010 insured registrations.

Bloomberg reports, citing data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's website, that the vehicle will be about 150 centimeters (5.9 inches) longer than the existing Model Y.

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Analyst Opinion

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla and set a price forecast of $285 on Thursday.

Delaney expressed optimism about Tesla's Model YL, a new variant of the Model Y, which will likely boost the company's position in the three-row SUV market.

Announced on July 16, the Model YL is about 7 inches longer and 1.5-2 inches taller than the current Model Y, which should make it a more viable option for families needing a three-row SUV, per the analyst.

He noted that the Model Y currently offers a third row, but its limited space makes it suitable mainly for children.

In contrast, the Model YL will likely feature six seats and is positioned to compete effectively in the SUV market in the U.S., Europe, and China, Delaney noted.

While Tesla has not disclosed the exact price for the Model YL, reports suggest it will be priced around 400K Chinese yuan ($37,000), as per the analyst. For context, he noted that the U.S. Model Y starts at approximately $45,000, while the Model X starts at $90,000.

The pricing of the Model YL puts it in direct competition with other three-row SUVs in the market, like the Toyota (NYSE:TM) Highlander and the Ford (NYSE:F) Explorer, which both start around $40,000 in the U.S. Tesla's new offering could attract customers who want a larger vehicle without stepping up to the more expensive Model X, Delaney said.

The analyst noted that Tesla will likely deliver 30,000 units of the Model YL in 2025, with an anticipated 175,000 units in 2026 and 375,000 units in 2027.

He writes that the company's overall delivery projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.594 million, 1.865 million, and 2.15 million, respectively. Delaney noted this new model will help Tesla to capture the three-row SUV segment better, especially as the company seeks to expand its market share in the U.S. and Europe, where the mid-sized SUV market accounted for 19% of total vehicle units in the U.S. last year.

As per the analyst, Tesla's focus on creating a more differentiated product with the Model YL contrasts with initial investor expectations, which leaned toward a cost-reduced or slightly smaller version of the Model Y.

The announcement has already positively impacted Tesla's stock, with the shares rising 3.5% on July 16, outperforming the flat S&P 500, he noted. Delaney said that this release is a strategic step to address growing demand in key regions, including the U.S., where SUVs dominate vehicle sales. Additionally, the analyst added that Tesla is expected to launch a lower-cost variant of the Model Y or 3 this year, which could further enhance its competitive edge.

Delaney projected fiscal 2025 revenue of $89.64 billion and EPS of $1.00.

Price Action: TSLA stock was down 0.94% at $318.66 at the last check Thursday.

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