Bitcoin Back Above $114,000: Is The Bottom In?
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is exhibiting signs of seller exhaustion, according to new analysis from blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode, even as overall market structure remains vulnerable.
What Happened: The report paints a picture of a recalibrating crypto market that has retreated from recent highs, yet shows early signals of potential recovery.
After testing the lower bounds of liquidity near the $114,000 threshold, Bitcoin’s euphoric momentum has sharply cooled.
Across spot, derivatives, and on-chain markets, indicators suggest declining risk appetite, thinning volumes, and rising demand for hedging, common hallmarks of markets nearing a local bottom.
In the spot market, Bitcoin's RSI dropped from 47.4 to 35.8, entering oversold territory.
Net cumulative volume delta (CVD) worsened from -$107.1 million to -$220 million, reflecting an uptick in sell-side activity.
Trading volume dropped from $8.4 billion to $7.5 billion, underscoring lower retail and institutional participation.
The futures market echoed these signs of cooling momentum.
Open interest fell modestly from $45.6 billion to $44.9 billion, while long-side funding rates dipped 33% to $3.1 million.
Perpetual CVD deepened from -$1.2 billion to -$1.8 billion, suggesting forced liquidations and aggressive unwinding by leveraged traders.
The options market saw open interest fall 8.4% to $39.8 billion, while the volatility spread narrowed to 16.26%, indicating less risk being priced in.
Yet, the 25 Delta Skew rose above its upper band to 5.51%, showing increased hedging demand, likely from investors seeking downside protection.
Also Read: Michael Novogratz Says Bitcoin, Ethereum Treasury Frenzy May Be Over — What Now?
Why It Matters: On the ETF front, net inflows shrank by nearly 25% to $269.4 million, well below Glassnode's low-band threshold, pointing to weaker institutional conviction.
While ETF trading volume rose 9.9% to $19.8 billion, suggesting some responsive interest, market value to realized value (MVRV) fell slightly from 2.4 to 2.3, hinting at reduced unrealized profits.
On-chain activity remained mixed.
Active addresses rose 3.6% to 729,000, yet transfer volumes declined 13.9% to $9.4 billion, and transaction fees dropped 14.4% to $483,200.
This implies that although some usage persists, overall network demand remains tepid. Capital inflows are still elevated, with Realized Cap Change at 6.3%, but profitability metrics have begun to fade.
What’s Next: Glassnode's summary concludes that Bitcoin is shifting from a phase of euphoric growth to one of reassessment.
While downside risks remain due to fragile liquidity, the emergence of oversold indicators and seller fatigue could set the stage for a potential bounce, particularly if demand resumes or macro catalysts arrive.
Supporting analysis from other experts further contextualizes this transition.
Speaking with Benzinga, Georgii Verbitskii, founder of crypto investor app TYMIO, noted that the July 9 breakout marked a turning point in market structure, with Bitcoin clearing long-standing resistance and moving near all-time highs.
While August is seasonally subdued, Verbitskii says corporate treasury accumulation and historical patterns support potential upside into autumn.
CEX.IO lead analyst Illia Otychenko sees Bitcoin dominance increasing after a MACD crossover, suggesting a short- to mid-term rotation out of altcoins.
However, he also flagged risks: a double bearish crossover on the weekly RSI, weakening volume peaks, and Binary CDD climbing to 0.85, a level previously associated with long-term holder profit-taking and consolidation phases.
Despite a growing consensus that Bitcoin is nearing a local bottom, the market remains highly sensitive.
Glassnode's report emphasizes that a lack of renewed demand, particularly from institutional ETF flows, or further macro shocks could derail recovery and accelerate downside.
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Posted-In: Cryptocurrency News
