Will Super 8 Be "Super" at the Box Office?

The long-awaited JJ Abrams epic* finally hits theaters today.

With teaser trailers running since early last year and numerous full-length trailers and TV spots airing for the past six months, Super 8 is one of the most hyped films of the summer movie season. But it is the writer and director (JJ Abrams) and the co-producers (Abrams and Steven Spielberg, along with Lost and Fringe exec producer Bryan Burk) that have given Super 8 a ridiculously huge following.

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On this alone, I'm forecasting ticket sales between $70 and $85 million. That $15 million gap might seem large, but it is justified: if moviegoers are sold on the hype alone (and/or the fact that Abrams directed Star Trek), it should pull in close to $70 million. If, in addition to that, moviegoers are intrigued by the vague trailers and TV ads – some of which, I argue, are too vague for their own good, while others are simply too good to be true – then another $15 million could be easily attained.

However, Super 8 is not without a few challenges. First off, it is wholly possible that the vague TV spots have had a negative effect on the film, and could reduce its opening total from the $70 million earnings it should easily attain. Second, movie theaters across the country – including Cinemark (NYSE: CNK), Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC), and AMC Theaters – have allocated fewer show times to Super 8 than they have for X-Men: First Class this weekend. This is not a good sign. Realistically, First Class (which was a semi-flop last weekend, earning only $55 million) won't pull in more than $30 million this weekend, as movies tend to drop off severely during their second week at the box office.

Thus, if theater owners think First Class will do better than Super 8 (as indicated by their show time allocations), they must be predicting Super 8 ticket sales to achieve less than $30 million in revenue.

That is very, very sad. And, to be frank, an absolute load of crap.

Abrams' first alien flick, Cloverfield, was a niche and highly secretive project that came out of nowhere. Abrams only served as the producer (not the writer or the director) and the film still made $46 million when it opened three years ago.

Considering Abrams' track record (both in movies and on TV), you might be wondering why theaters are down on Super 8.

All things likely, this will turn out to be another case of poor decision making. While theaters may have the freedom to expand and reduce show times based on box office sales, the initial deals are made months in advance. Looking at the numbers alone, it's not a stretch to see how a suave executive could convince AMC that the fourth X-Men movie would be huge. It's also not hard to imagine the difficulty that Paramount (NYSE: VIA) execs must have had when trying to sell Abrams' latest film to theaters. While Super 8 comes from some very prominent filmmakers, the movie has one thing going against it: it's not a sequel.

Irrespective of that, I stand by my prediction. I firmly believe that Super 8 will pull in somewhere between $70 and $85 million.

As for X-Men, the writing was on the wall months ago. X-Men: The Last Stand and X-Men Origins: Wolverine left moviegoers with a horrible taste in their mouths. That taste, combined with a questionable trailer campaign (read: the trailers were not very exciting), clearly had a negative impact on First Class.

*While “epic” is the buzzword frequently associated with Super 8, its actual status at the box office has not been determined.