Preliminary Details for August Durable Goods Contradict Extreme Pessimism

From Moody's Ex-Transportation, the details are most encouraging that the US is not going to hell in a handbasket quite yet:

·  Core capital goods orders recovered 4.1% in August, following July's revised 5.3% Plunge (previously 8%). Capital goods orders are up 18% from a year ago. Core capital goods have increased almost 30% since bottoming in April 2009, and are roughly 12% below the prerecession peak.

·  Shipments rose 1.6% in August, reversing most of July's decline. Shipments are up 13% since last August.

These are nice year over year comps in core capital goods and shipments, given that cash for clunkers in July-August 09 ramped up production. But new orders are still roughly 30% below the peak in 2007. At least the new orders are not cratering as feared might be happening this summer.