As China Downplays Trump Tariffs With 5% Growth Target, Top Economist Warns Of '90% Chance Of A US Recession' Amid Trade War

China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's top economic planning agency, is downplaying the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and projecting strong growth despite mounting macroeconomic headwinds.

What Happened: On Monday, Zhao Chenxin, Vice Head of the NDRC, said he was “fully confident” that China would meet its target of 5% economic growth in 2025, despite mounting uncertainties and warnings of a sharp downturn from leading analysts, according to a Reuters report.

“No Matter how the international situation changes, we will anchor our development goals, maintain strategic focus, and concentrate on doing our own thing,” Zhao said.

This comes amid a particularly difficult period for the Chinese economy, which is already reeling from deflation and a prolonged property crisis.

At the same time, Torsten Slok, the Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, joined the growing chorus of experts and eminent intellectuals in recent weeks by predicting a “90% chance we’ll have a recession” if the tariffs remain at their current levels.

Speaking on the Economics Matters podcast on Friday, Slok said that small businesses that account for 80% of employment in the U.S. and 80% of the capital expenditure will be hit hard by the tariffs.

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Why It Matters: Recession fears have continually edged higher throughout this past month, with economists, banks, and betting markets all pricing a high probability of a recession this year.

There are, of course, others with a contrarian take on this, such as the CEO of Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), who said last week that there were “no signs of a recession at this point.”

Even the International Monetary Fund sees a slowdown in the global economy, but stops short of forecasting a recession, offering reassurance that the world can weather Washington’s tariff storm.

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