Research Firm Boosts Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Probability To 90%: But Will It Be A 'Sell The News' Event?

Cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research raised the chances of the SEC greenlighting the Ethereum (CRYTO: ETH) spot ETF later today to 90%.

What Happened: In its latest newsletter, 10x Research deemed the approval a "formality". It noted that an X post by SEC Chair Gary Gensler cautioning investors of potential risks–similar to the one before the approval of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs in January–could come around 9 a.m. EDT. This is typically a sign of the approval being immediate.

The analytics platform highlighted that the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (OTC:ETHE) has narrowed its discount to its net asset value (NAV) to 8% from 30% a week ago.

"An 8% discount implies at least a 90% probability that an ETF would be approved," the firm pointed out. 

The research firm also foresaw the approval becoming a "sell the news" event. These fears aligned with the moves of Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke who transferred nearly 10,000 ETH to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. 

Why It Matters: The mood in the cryptocurrency market was upbeat as VanEck’s spot Ether ETF was listed by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) — a necessary precursor to SEC approval. Note that the final decision on VanEck's application is expected to come from the SEC later today.

Alongside, a slew of other ETF hopefuls, including BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) amended their 19b-4 filings for spot Ether ETFs.

Meanwhile, the chances of approval on decentralized prediction market Polymarket jumped to 67%

Price Action: At the time of writing, Ether was exchanging hands at $3,785.04, following marginal gains of 0.83% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro. 

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