US Holds Back Tech Export Crackdown To Support Trump-Xi Talks

The United States has temporarily halted restrictions on technology exports to China, according to a Monday report from the Financial Times. This pause is intended to prevent disruptions to ongoing trade discussions with Beijing and to bolster President Donald Trump’s push for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.

According to the report, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, responsible for implementing export controls, has received directives in recent months to defer aggressive enforcement actions against Beijing. The newspaper cited both current and former U.S. officials.

This policy shift could provide a significant tailwind for leading semiconductor manufacturers, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM), ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON), and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU).

Also Read: Nvidia Outpaces Market With AI-Powered Growth, Nears Record Highs

The broader context for this pause includes high-level economic discussions scheduled to commence on Monday in Stockholm between U.S. and Chinese officials, focused on addressing persistent trade and economic grievances.

Notably, this move follows Nvidia’s recent announcement that it would resume sales of its H20 AI chips to China. This decision reversed an earlier export restriction imposed by the Trump administration in April, which cited national security concerns.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick previously linked this policy adjustment to broader negotiations encompassing critical materials such as rare earths and magnets.

However, the perceived easing of controls has not been universally welcomed. The Financial Times reports that a coalition of 20 national security experts and former U.S. officials, including former deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, intends to send a letter to Secretary Lutnick on Monday, expressing concerns that such concessions could compromise America’s strategic advantage in artificial intelligence.

Since 2019, Washington has incrementally tightened semiconductor sanctions on China, including the blacklisting of companies like Huawei, with the stated aim of curbing China’s access to sophisticated semiconductor technology, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence, citing national security imperatives.

On July 16, Needham’s N. Quinn Bolton raised his Nvidia price forecast from $160 to $200, citing renewed China shipments and surging demand. He expects Nvidia to recapture lost H20 GPU sales after U.S. export licenses were approved, projecting $3 billion in quarterly shipments and near-100% margins on written-down inventory.

Bolton also highlighted strong interest in new China-specific Blackwell chips, forecasting over $1 billion in early orders and revenue upside starting as soon as August. He raised fiscal 2026–2028 estimates sharply, seeing Nvidia well-positioned to regain momentum in China despite ongoing restrictions.

NVDA Price Action: NVDA stock is trading higher by 0.83% to $174.94 at last check Monday.

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