Chamath Palihapitiya Laid Out A Short Case Against Meta, Alphabet In 2020—Both Have Since Rallied Over 160%
Despite forecasting a grim future for Big Tech in mid-2020, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya's short thesis on Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has not materialized, as both stocks have posted massive gains over the past five years.
What Happened: In July 2020, Palihapitiya posted on X a multi-part argument against the long-term prospects of Facebook, now called Meta, and Google, now rebranded under Alphabet, citing regulatory risk, lack of innovation, rising taxes, and antitrust scrutiny.
"If you have the capital/stomach for a 5yr+ bet, here's how I'd build the short case," Palihapitiya wrote.
He argued that "BigTech's long term success is no longer about better products," and said their market dominance would erode under the weight of global legal, political, and economic pressures.
Palihapitiya warned that while each threat alone could be dismissed, "when you layer these probabilities, the risk changes." He estimated that within 7 to 10 years, the odds of meaningful market value destruction could reach 50/50.
See Also: Palo Alto Networks Stock Is Falling Today: What’s Going On?
Why It Matters: Yet, five years later, the opposite has occurred. As of July 30, 2025, Meta's stock is up 174.06% in the past five years. Similarly, Alphabet's Class A shares have gained 164.15%, while Class C shares are up 166.27% during the same period, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
On Wednesday, Meta posted second-quarter revenue of $47.52 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $44.58 billion. Earnings came in at $7.14 per share, also topping forecasts of $5.79 per share.
Last week, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $96.43 billion, exceeding analyst projections of $93.72 billion. The company also delivered earnings of $2.31 per share, topping estimates of $2.16 per share.
Meta currently holds a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion, while Alphabet is valued at $2.83 trillion.
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