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Ian Shepherdson: Greece Has Crisis, US Just Has Deficit

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High Frequency Economics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson does not think the budget deficit will threaten US growth anytime soon.

"US does not have a deficit crisis." he told CNBC's Squawk Box. "Greece has a crisis, the US just has deficit." he said, positing that revenues were on track to pick up significantly as the economy grows in the next couple of years.

He does see the debt ceiling debate that is set for December of this year to have a potentially adverse effect on market sentiment if it results in political standoff similar to that of the past summer.

In addition to the debt, he sees other potential risks to economic recovery.

"There are risks to growth, no doubt about it," Shepherdson says. "Iran is a risk. Oil prices are a risk. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, forget about it."

Asked what level in oil prices would significantly threaten US growth, Shepherdson notes: "It certainly it is not $110/barrel, But $150, that would take off 2 percent off of growth, should it materialize."

Shepherdson does not see any further quantitative easing, whether in the form of QE3 or further Operation-Twist-like maneuvers. "I think people are increasingly moving away from QE3, saying that it would be nonsense as things are going currently." he notes.

He adds that such talk back and fourth about such easing is having a detrimental effect on the Fed. "Markets are starting to lose faith on the Fed," he says, pointing it is the Fed's tactics that are artificially dampening economic activity, not bona-fide market conditions.

 

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