Kinect vs. iPad: Who Will Win?

At first glance, Kinect – the motion-based device from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) – does not appear to have anything to do with Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPad. One is a hands-free controller developed for Xbox 360; the other is a standalone device that buyers can take advantage of regardless of their previous electronics purchases.

Still, back in September, Microsoft spokesman Kudo Tsunoda said that Kinect sales would blow away anything we've seen with the iPad.

While that statement could be easily written off as marketing rubbish, you have to wonder: could his prediction have any degree of accuracy?

Historically, add-ons do not produce massive sales results within the game industry. While electronics manufacturers successfully convinced TV buyers to take home VCRs (which are somewhat of an add-on), and then DVD players, DVRs, and now other gadgets, game console buyers are less eager to upgrade unless they're buying an entirely new machine.

During the ‘90s, Sega was notoriously known for releasing two add-ons to its Genesis console, neither of which could be used without the Genesis. Other companies have faced a similar challenge in getting consumers to embrace add-ons.

At $150, Kinect isn't cheap. Many of the existing Xbox 360 owners spent a minimum of $300 to purchase the console; when combined with Kinect, you're looking at more than $450 in expenses.

Of course, one could argue that many of the iPad users had previously spent $300+ on various iPods and iPhones. While the iPad may not be an add-on, it is very much a low-level upgrade the existing iPod Touch formula. Thus, if consumers were as loyal to Microsoft as they are to Apple, Kinect would (theoretically) be huge.

As it stands, Business Insider reports that Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) have sold out of Kinect pre-orders. That's a good sign for first-week sales of the hands-free device.

Meanwhile, Apple sold 3.27 million iPads during its June quarter. That number isn't too far off from the three million units analysts expect Kinect to sell this Christmas.

The one thing that could set Microsoft's device apart from the iPad (and every other product company execs feel like comparing it to) is the fact that, above all else, Kinect is something the world hasn't seen before.

Unlike the iPad, however, Kinect doesn't have an app store.