Morgan Stanley Recaps September U.S. Auto Sales Data

Following major auto manufacturers releasing sales data for September, Ryosuke Hosino and Kota Mineshima of Morgan Stanley offered some commentary.

September's U.S. auto sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) came in at 16.43 million vehicles, a “major correction” from 17.53 million units in August, continuing a trend of “mixed SAAR trends” in recent months.

According to AUTODATA, the average industry incentive per vehicle in September rose 20 percent from a year ago to $2,974. According to TrueCar, the average selling unit price declined 1.4 percent from a year ago.

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Industry inventory at the end of September is due to be released on Friday. The analysts estimate inventories will be at “reasonable levels, considering seasonality.”

General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) improved its market share to 17.9 percent from 16.4 percent a year ago, while Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) saw its market share decline to 14.4 percent from 16.2 percent a year ago, according to the analysts calculations.

Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) (NYSE: TM) saw its market share decline to 13.4 percent from 14.4 percent a year ago. As a whole, Japanese auto manufacturers improved their market share to 36.9 percent from 36.4 percent a year ago.

Korean auto manufactures saw their market share decline to 7.8 percent from 8.2 percent a year ago, while European auto manufactures also saw their market share decline to 9.5 percent from 10.3 percent.

The analysts believe that the sales finance climate remains “loose” and October's SAAR could show a rebound. The analysts also add that Japanese auto manufacturers efforts to boost product appeal and output capacity to “start coming through in earnest,” thus making it premature to shift towards a bearish view on the U.S. auto market.