Report: Temporary Help Payrolls Could Signal Recession Due Soon

Is a recession in the United States looming? According to a report by Bloomberg, some signs may be pointing towards yes.

Bloomberg's Rich Miller suggested the headline jobs data may be signalling the labor market is losing momentum. Specifically, temporary-help employment is "showing signs of topping out." Temporary-help employment has fallen in two of the past three months and is now lower by 1.8 percent since the start of 2016 -- at a time when total payrolls are actually higher.

Meanwhile, a broad labor-market index which was created by economists at the Federal Reserve has fallen for three straight months, marking the first time this has occurred since 2009.

Despite a picture of gloom and doom, economists polled by Bloomberg suggested there is only a 15 percent change of a recession occurring in the next 12 months. The monthly survey was an improvement from the 18 percent figure seen in March's survey and 20 percent in February.

"Generally speaking, we think the labor market is still fairly robust," Kip Wright, senior vice president of Manpower North America, part of ManpowerGroup told Bloomberg. "We've certainly seen certain sectors that had some weaknesses, like manufacturing. But they've bottomed out to some extent and are starting to stabilize."