What Is The 'Trump ETF' And Why Is It Signaling A Clinton Victory?

If the "Trump ETF" indicator holds true, Donald Trump and the Republican party won't be pleased with the results of the U.S. election.

According to Bloomberg, the "Trump ETF" refers to the largest U.S.-listed, Mexican exchange-traded fund, the iShares MSCI Mexico Inv. Mt. Idx. (ETF) (NYSE: EWW).

What's Happened?

On Monday, the ETF gained 5.1 percent, which happened to be the ETF's best performing day in five years. In addition, the fund saw its largest daily inflow in three years of $125 million.

On the other hand, the exact same ETF witnessed its largest single-day withdrawal of $94 million last Tuesday.

Why Is It Called The 'Trump ETF?'

Investor logic dictates that the "Trump ETF" holds assets that would fall under a Trump presidency, as his campaign was built on re-working trade agreements with Mexico, which are believed to be unfavorable to the United States.

Given the 5.1 percent gain in the ETF on Monday and a near 2 percent gain on Tuesday, investors are assuming that Mexican assets won't come under pressure as a result of the U.S. election.

“It is not unusual to see a single-country ETF become the way to bet an on election,” Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said, while adding “here you have an ETF not of our country that has become the proxy to bet on the election.”