Producer Price Index Unexpectedly Falls In February, Swinging Market Expectations Toward Federal Reserve Pause

U.S. producer prices fell more than economists had expected last month in a sign the Federal Reserve's aggressive response to high inflation is starting to take hold. 

What To Know: The producer price index (PPI) fell 0.1% in February, according to new data the Labor Department released on Wednesday.

The number was down from a 0.3% increase in January and came in below average economist estimates for a gain of 0.3%. 

On a year-over-year basis, PPI came in at 4.6%, well below average estimates of 5.4%. 

Excluding volatile food, energy and trade prices, PPI increased 0.2% in February, down from a 0.5% gain in January. The core number came in up 4.4% on a year-over-year basis. 

Why It Matters: The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is facing heavy selling pressure Wednesday morning as a result of contagion fears in the banking sector sparked by new developments from Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS), but Wednesday's print is likely another sign that the Fed will opt for a less aggressive rate hike at its next meeting later this month. 

Chances for a sharp 0.5% hike steadily climbed last week amid the Fed's semiannual Monetary Policy Report and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell before a series of bank runs completely changed market expectations.

Lingering uncertainty surrounding banks tilted projections away from a 0.5% hike earlier this week. The market was pricing in a greater likelihood of a 0.25% increase, but following the Credit Suisse news and a cooler-than-expected PPI print, the market is now tilting toward a pause. 

According to CME Group data Wednesday morning, there is a 58.7% chance of a pause at the Fed's next meeting and a 41.3% chance of a 0.25% rate increase. A 0.5% hike is completely off the table. The central bank's next decision on rates is due March 22.

See Also: 4 Experts Agree Following CPI Inflation Print: Housing Appears To Be Inflating Data, But The Fed Will Not Be Fooled

SPY Price Action: The SPY was down 1.11% at $387.42 at the time of publication, according to Benzinga Pro.

Photo via Shutterstock.