Earnings Just Put Dan Loeb's Bets To The Test — Here's What Held Up

Earnings results this week spanned several sectors represented in Dan Loeb's Third Point portfolio, offering new insight into the firm’s Q4 2024 positions.

Cinemark Holdings Inc (NYSE:CNK): The investor reduced its stake from 7,000,000 shares in the third quarter of 2024 to 3,750,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2024.

• The company registered first-quarter EPS losses of 32 cents, compared with the analyst consensus estimate of 10 cents loss and sales of $540.70 million (down 6.6% year over year) outpaced the street view of $540.68 million.
• JP Morgan analyst David Karnovsky writes that compared to their forecast of $515 million in revenue and $26 million in EBITDA, the outperformance was driven across key metrics, including higher attendance, improved per-patron spending, and additional revenue streams.
• D-Box technologies announced expansion of its relationship with Cinemark and will add over 70 D-box haptic-enabled screens across as many as 25 Cinemark theaters in the United States in the next eighteen months.
• Year to date, Cinemark fell about 2.13%, compared to the Invesco S&P SmallCap Utilities & Communication Services ETF (NASDAQ:PSCU), which declined about 5.73% over the same time frame.

Corpay, Inc. (NYSE:CPAY): Third Point had trimmed its stake from 765,000 shares in the third quarter of 2024 to 610,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2024.

• The company reported first quarter adjusted EPS of $4.51, in line with the consensus, and sales of $1.01 billion, missing the street view of $1.02 billion.
• Corpay slightly narrowed its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $20.80 to $21.20 (from $20.75 to $21.25 prior) vs. consensus estimate of $21.08.
• The company has increased its 2025 sales guidance to $4.38 billion to $4.46 billion (from its prior range of $4.35 billion to $4.45 billion) vs. the analyst consensus estimate of $4.40 billion.
• UBS analyst Roger Boyd lowered the price forecast from $400 to $365, and Raymond James analyst slashed the price forecast from $417 to $414.
• AvidXchange Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVDX) inked a deal to be acquired by Corpay and TPG Inc. (NASDAQ: TPG) for $10 per share in cash, valuing the company at $2.2 billion.
• Year to date, Corpay rose about 3.32%, almost similar to SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF (NASDAQ:FCTE), which rose about 3.16% over the same time frame.

Jacobs Solutions Inc. (NYSE:J): Loeb had 1,650,000 shares in the company as of the fourth quarter of 2024.

• The company reported a second-quarter 2025 revenue increase of 2.2% year-over-year to $2.91 billion, topping the $2.18 billion consensus and adjusted EPS of $1.43, which came above the consensus of $1.39.
• Jacobs sees adjusted net revenue growing mid-to-high single digits, with an EBITDA margin of 13.8-14.0% and FCF conversion exceeding 100% of net income.
• The company expects adjusted EPS of $5.85 – $6.20 (versus the $6.03 consensus) for 2025.
• RBC Capital analyst Sabahat Khan raised the price forecast from $152 to $154, Truist Securities analyst Jamie Cook boosted the price forecast from $130 to $141, while UBS analyst Steven Fisher lowered the price forecast from $154 to $152.
• Year to date, the company’s share declined about 4.57% vs. Valued Advisers Trust Kovitz Core Equity ETF (NYSE:EQTY), which rose about 0.04% over the same time frame.

Primo Brands Corporation (NYSE:PRMB): The investor acquired a stake in the company, attaining 2,400,000 shares in the fourth quarter 2024.

• The company reported first-quarter revenue growth of 42.1% year-on-year to $1.61 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.62 billion, while adjusted EPS of 29 cents beat the consensus estimate of 23 cents.
•  For 2025, Primo sees net sales growth of 3%–5% and expects adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion–$1.628 billion.
• Mizuho analyst John Baumgartner initiated coverage on with an Outperform rating and a price forecast of $43.
• Year to date, Primo Brands increased about 3.35%, compared to Global X Clean Water ETF (NASDAQ:AQWA), which rose about 7.49% over the same time frame.

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