viridian chart of the week

The graph depicts consensus analyst expectations for the ten largest MSOs that have consistent 2023 and 2024 estimates, including Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF), Green Thumb (OTC: GTBIF), Verano (OTC: VRNOF), Trulieve (OTC: TRUL), Cresco (OTC: CRLBF), TerrAsced (OTC: TRSSF), Columbia (OTC: CCHWF), Ascend (...

Aggregate net debt to LTM EBITDA for the top MSOs is now 3.0x with five of the eleven over 5x, arguably unsustainable in a 280e world. The graph shows two essential indicators of cannabis company leverage and credit quality: Net debt/ LTM EBITDA and Net Debt/ Enterprise Value. The chart depicts...

The graphs' bars show the average daily dollar trading volume for sixteen of the largest U.S. MSOs and five of the largest Canadian LPs from 1/1/23 through 5/19/23. The blue bars represent the volume on the primary exchange, while the orange bars depict the volume on the secondary exchange....

The graph shows the actual or expected sequential revenue growth from the 4th quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023 for sixteen of the top MSOs.  Eight of the sixteen companies have already announced Q1:23 results; these companies have an “A” after their ticker symbol. The...

The graph shows the percentage of stock in acquisition consideration for transactions targeted at the Cultivation & Retail sector. The green line (measured on the left axis) shows the stock percentage of consideration, while the orange line (measured on the right axis) depicts the price...

The chart shows the Tax Adjusted Debt to Market Capitalization of the twenty-four U.S. Cultivation & Retail sector companies in the Viridian Credit Tracker database with market caps above $20M. We have excluded Bright Green (BGXX: Nasdaq) because its pre-revenue, start-up nature renders it...

The Chart shows the top ten Canadian cannabis companies by credit quality (based on the Viridian Credit Tracker Model). The best-ranked credits are on the left. The Viridian Capital Credit Model uses 11 financial and market variables to calculate four primary credit factors: Liquidity:...

The graph shows the market/book ratios for cannabis sales leaseback providers and lenders, along with two indicators of risk: market leverage and borrower concentration. The green bars show market/book ratios for each company. The orange line shows the market cap minus cash divided by enterprise...

The graph shows the indexed prices of baskets of psychedelics stocks and cannabis stocks over the last twelve months. The orange line shows the broad-based Russell 2000 indexed so that 3/25/22=100. The blue line shows an equally weighted basket price of the 25 Psychedelics companies in the...

The graph displays the results from 4th qtr earnings releases for the nine U.S. Cultivation & Retail sector companies reported through 3/17/23. The green bars display the percentage stock price change from two days before the release to two days after, minus the percentage change in the MSOS...

Earnings season is upon us again, and most public cannabis companies will release results for the 4th quarter of 2022 in the next few weeks. Only two of the companies in the graph have reported to date. Green Thumb (OTC: GTBIF) beat consensus revenue estimates by 1% and EBITDA estimates by 1.2%,...

The graph depicts the two most significant factors in the Viridian Credit Tracker credit scoring model, Liquidity (blue) and Leverage (red) for the group of 12 U.S. Cultivation & Retail companies with Market caps between $10M and $75M. The Viridian model uses eleven financial and market-based...

The graph shows the consensus operating estimates for the calendar year ended 12/31/23 and Viridian Capital estimates of current net debt and enterprise value for AYR Wellness (OTC: AYRWF) and Canopy Growth (NASDAQ: CGC) Both companies' debt is trading at stressed/distressed levels AYR's...

The chart shows the last three years and Last Twelve Months of Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) for the six MSOs in the Viridian Capital Value Tracker database with market caps between $25M and $100M. Most companies showed positive adjusted EBITDA for 2021, but only half had positive CFFO. ...

Before 2022, it was commonly believed that "Pick and Shovel" companies that are suppliers to the MSOs were safer places to invest in the cannabis universe. 2022 proved that wisdom is incorrect. An equal-weighted basket of the agriculture technology stocks in the graph declined by 80%...