yield curve

Fixed income investors are finally seeing some relief after enduring the longest yield curve inversion in modern history. Yield Curve Steepening: A Shift After Years Of Inversion Since July 2022, short-term yields sat stubbornly above long-term yields, creating a highly unusual environment. But as...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve officially exited its prolonged inversion on Friday, Sept. 6. This marks the end of over two years when short-term yields were higher than those on long-term bonds — a rare and closely watched economic phenomenon. As of Monday, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 3.72...

Merrill, a Bank of America company, has thrown a curveball, challenging the traditional wisdom surrounding the predictive power of the U.S. yield curve inversion for recessions. In Merrill’s latest Capital Market Outlook, penned by Joseph P. Quinlan, managing director and head of CIO market...

On Wednesday (June 28), the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted further, with the yield on the two-year note exceeding the yield on the 10-year note by a full percentage point. This is the biggest level of inversion since March 9, when a slew of regional bank failures disrupted the Treasury yield...

The probability that the U.S. economy will enter a recession within the next year has increased to 68.2% in April. That's the greatest level since late 1982, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The model employs the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and specifically the spread between...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve entered an unprecedented state this week, with one-month yields rising above three-month yields for the first time since the subprime mortgage crisis, due to investors' mounting concern about the U.S. debt ceiling situation.  The yield differential...

The likelihood of a recession in the United States within the next year has risen to almost 58%, the highest level since August 1982, according to the New York Federal Reserve.  The recession-risk indicator is now greater than it was in November 2007, just before the subprime-Lehman...

The yield curve is the most inverted that it has been since 2000. This could be a sign of recession. It has been an accurate indicator in the past. The amount of a dividend that a bond pays is fixed. So as the price of the bond fluctuates, so will the percentage yield. Related Link: US...

With all the talk and rage about the yield curve and what it may signal, its important to take a step back to analyze what a yield curve is, what it’s meant to share with investors, and how it can lead the future direction of the economy.   Basic Fixed Income Formula (vice versa):...

The difference between the yield on 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury bonds has dropped below 0.2% and is now at its lowest level since March 2020. Unfortunately, a flattening or negative yield curve can be a very negative indicator for the economy. The good news for investors is that there have...

The difference between the yield on 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury bonds has dropped below 0.2% and is now at its lowest level since March 2020. Unfortunately, a flattening or negative yield curve can be a very negative indicator for the economy. What Is An Inverted Yield Curve? The yield curve...

(Wednesday Market Open) Investors seem ready to pause buying to start a new month, quarter, and last half of the year after two days of solid gains helped make for the best quarter in more than 20 years. In economic news, an employment report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics showed fewer job...

The U.S. Treasury issued $20 billion in new 20-year bonds on May 20, the first such issuance since 1986. This new 20-year bond slotted into a part of the yield curve where only decade-old 30-year bonds trade. On June 17,the Treasury issued another $17 billion of the same $20-year CUSIP.  Since...

With the stock market in turmoil Monday, investors fled to government bonds and sent Treasury yields to new lows. Treasury Bond Prices Rise  The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell briefly to an all-time low, just above 0.3%, in overnight trading. By early afternoon Monday, the benchmark...

Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize in Economics recipient and the Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University, joined ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood in a discussion this week about the embrace of disruptive technology in today's narrative-driven economy at the Forbes 30 Under 30 Summit in...