Marten Transport Q1 Miss On Revenue, Analyst Cites Later-Cycle Exposure, Strategic Strengths

Raymond James analyst David Hicks reiterated the Market Perform rating on Marten Transport Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRTN).

Yesterday, the company reported the first quarter of 2025 with operating revenue of $223.2 million, lower than $249.7 million in the year-ago period.

Hicks highlighted the company’s strong balance sheet, focus on temperature-controlled operations and contract-centric business model as strengths that could be more advantageous later in the economic cycle — especially as the freight market faces macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

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While the analyst acknowledged Marten’s efforts to diversify into more resilient segments like Dedicated and Brokerage, Hicks noted these areas will take time to reflect any improvement in the freight market, limiting near-term earnings clarity.

Still, the analyst pointed out Marten’s growth potential through its expanding Dedicated fleet, increasing dry van presence, and profitable cross-border operations into Mexico — areas benefiting from early reshoring trends.

The analyst noted that although Marten Transport’s management did not issue formal guidance, it indicated a net capital expenditure estimate of around $115 million for fiscal year 2025 — down from the prior projection of approximately $150 million and lower than the $152.1 million spent in 2024.

Per Hicks, this reduction suggests that management may be shifting toward a more conservative, maintenance-focused approach in response to ongoing market uncertainty.

The analyst observed that despite ongoing tariff pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty delaying a broader recovery, Marten Transport’s Dedicated segment has remained notably resilient during the current freight downturn.

While the strength of this business line is encouraging, the analyst emphasized that Martenis is still considered a “later cycle” investment due to its business mix.

As a result, the analyst slightly lowered their EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 to 29 cents and 50 cents, down from 31 cents and 55 cents, respectively.

MRTN Price Action: Marten Transport’s shares are trading higher by 2.81% to $13.19 at publication on Thursday.

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