Analyst Sees Bright Spot In Copper As Miners Dig Deeper In Hole

Mining stocks are likely to dig deeper in the short-term but the copper segment should see a recovery strong recovery beginning in 2017, an analyst said Tuesday.

Jefferies Christopher LaFemina called Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) "one of our top picks in the sector" and said copper is facing supply constraints that are likely to push up prices of the metal significantly.

The analyst also maintained Buy ratings on copper miners First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSE: FM), Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) and Glencore PLC (LON: GLEN).

But in the short-term, mining stocks across all segments will fall on further weakness in prices of iron ore and limited near-term gains for copper, other base metals, coal and gold, according to LaFemina.

Despite a Buy rating on Freeport, LaFemina cut his price target by 40 percent to $27 as the company experiences a tough year for operations.

The shares are off 40 percent in the past six months and Freeport looks likely to soon cut its dividend in the face of high debt and negative cash flow.

Copper prices will languish in a trough during the current year but gain 23 percent by 2017 to $3.25 a pound, according to LaFemina's estimate. The price for the metal should rise to $4 in 2018 as demand outstrips supply.

Given the bullish longer-term copper outlook, LaFemina called Freeport's current share price attractive with a major turnaround in prospect.