Morgan Stanley's Major Pharma Q1 Preview

Morgan Stanley provided a preview of Q1 results and listed key events for Q2 on major pharmaceutical companies.

Analysts led by David Risinger indicated that “US sales should benefit from healthy pricing and Rx trends,” however, FX could impact expectations as the U.S. dollar appreciated since the companies last provided 2015 guidance.

The firm estimated that the average top-line FX impact would be -7 percent in Q1 and -8 percent in 2015.

Risinger concluded that some of the “companies may need to tweak down 2015 guidance due to FX.”

Below are the firm's estimates along with upcoming key events.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE: BMY) - Equal-weight

For Q1, EPS was expected at $0.50 vs. consensus of $0.50. Estimize consensus was $0.49 EPS on revenue of $3.91 billion.

Key events for Q2 included:

“1) Opdivo: CheckMate 057 (N=582, NCT01673867) interim analysis for Ph. 3 HTH vs. chemo 2nd-line in non-squamous NSCLC; 2) ASCO in June: Ph 3 squamous lung cancer efficacy, potentially including breakdown in PD-L1+ and negative patients; also potential early clinical data presentation for new a IO mechanism (LAG, KIR, or CD137); 3) Elotuzumab (cancer) Ph. 3 data: ELOQUENT-2 (N=640) relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and ELOQUENT-1 (N=750) 1st-line multiple myeloma data.”

Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE: LLY) - Overweight

For Q1, EPS was expected at $0.79 vs. consensus of $0.76. Estimize consensus was $0.77 EPS on revenue of $4.689 billion.

Key events for Q2 included:

“1) DPP-IV panel conclusions on Tuesday April 14 - potential implications for Tradjenta and Glyxambi; 2) Jardiance (SGLT-2): CV outcomes trial, EMPA-REG OUTCOME, potential data disclosure; 3) Analyst meeting on diabetes franchise at ADA Sunday night June 7th.”

Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) - Equal-weight

For Q1, EPS was expected at $0.73 vs. consensus of $0.74. Estimize consensus was $0.78 EPS on revenue of $9.119 billion.

Key events for Q2 included:

“1) FDA panel action on DPP-IVs on Tuesday April 14 and Januvia TECOS CV outcomes trial result details in June at ADA, 2) Keytruda (immuno-oncology) trial results at AACR in Philadelphia April 19-20 and ASCO May 29 - June 3.”

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) - Equal-weight

For Q1, EPS was expected at $0.48 vs. consensus of $0.49. Estimize consensus was $0.50 EPS on revenue of $11.043 billion.

Key events for Q2 included:

“1) Potential Ibrance next data readout (PALOMA-2 interim analysis 2Q-3Q:15), 2) Trumenba (menincococcal vaccine): Potential ACIP vote on routine use in adolescents (ACIP 2015 meetings are Feb. 25–26, Jun. 24–25, and Oct. 21–22), 3) Oncology business analyst meeting at ASCO in June, including Merck KGaA PD-L1 data in ovarian cancer.”