Biogen's Final Catalyst Of 2015 Is A 'Coin Flip,' Evercore ISI Analyst Says

In a note to clients on Friday, Evercore ISI analyst Mark Schoenebaum
commented that investors were expecting Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) to report a "weak quarter" but its print actually came in "probably even worse" than expected.

Biogen earned $4.22 per share in the second quarter, beating the $4.10 per share analysts were looking for while revenue of $2.6 billion fell short of the $2.71 billion analysts were expecting.

According to Schoenebaum, Biogen's "most notable" takeaway is the fact that the company is lowering its full year revenue guidance from 14 to 16 percent year over year growth, to 6 to 8 percent. The analyst added that the consensus estimate was looking for a 13.5 percent revenue growth.

Biogen also revised its full year earnings per share guidance to a range of $15.50 to $15.95 per share, missing the $16.63 per share analysts were estimating.

"Many investors were expecting Biogen to lower its revenue guidance this quarter based on Biogen's comments from last quarter on Tecfidera trends, but this downward revision is probably more than what folks had expected and reflects apparent weakness in products beyond just Tecfidera," Schoenebaum wrote.

The analyst's commentary may actually echo management's remarks that were made during its post earnings conference call.

"We expected to see a reacceleration of Tecfidera this quarter but that did not happen to any appreciable extent," management said.

Looking forward, Schoenebaum noted that Biogen "seems to have just one" catalyst remaining for the year, SPMS. However, the analyst also stated that its chances of working is a "coin flip."