4 Catalysts Coming For Roche Investors

In a report issued Tuesday, Credit Suisse’s European Pharma Team revisited its model for ocrelizumab. Following the release of data that suggested the drug is a best-in-class in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (and that shows its tolerability profile is “impressive”), the firm assigned a 90 percent probability of $5.5 billion across MS indications.

Given the high unmet need in PPMS, the experts see “early launch potential and believe that accelerated review is a significant possibility.” Their model assumes roughly $1 billion in sales in 2017.

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On the other hand, the analysts expect some of the revenue benefit to be offset by the significant investment needed to launch ocrelizumab – especially within the MS infrastructure. Moreover, they noted, “This will coincide with a substantial investment in I-O phase 3.”

Investment Case And Catalysts

Credit Suisse analysts still think Roche has “significant underappreciated late-stage pipeline/launch potential with Esbriet, PD-L1, ocrelizumab, venetoclax, ACE910, lebrikizumab and potentially Perjeta in adjuvant HER2+ breast.” Thus, they envision material upside to mid-term consensus estimates on a positive launch of ocrelizumab and other clinical outcomes.

Among the upcoming catalysts, the experts highlighted:

• Third-quarter results, scheduled for October 22.
• ASH in early December: Venetoclax pivotal P2.
• SABC around mid-December: Atezo breast POC.
• For the first half of 2016: Perjeta P3 APHINITY adjuvant breast.

Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.

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