New Apple Supplier Data Are Highly Correlated With Revenue

In a new report, Stifel analyst Aaron Rakers looked at two of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)’s biggest suppliers to get a sense of what investors can expect for the company in Q1. According to Rakers’ numbers from Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) and Pegatron, revenue in January was down sharply for both iPhone suppliers.

“In terms of combined monthly sales, Hon Hai (Foxconn) + Pegatron reported January sales declined 16 percent month-over-month and 15 percent year-over-year; following the combined 18 percent decline in December 2015,” Rakers explained.

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While Hon Hai’s 18 percent month-over-month decline in January may seem bad, Rakers pointed out that the company endured 36 percent and 23 percent month-over-month declines in January 2014 and 2015, respectively. Pegatron’s 12 percent month-over-month revenue decline this January, however, is weaker than the 3.5 and 3.0 percent gains the company saw during the same month in the past two years.

Rakers reminded Apple shareholders that it is still early in Q1 to be jumping to any conclusions about the quarter, but the two suppliers’ sales numbers have historically has a high correlation to Apple’s quarterly sales numbers.

Stifel maintains a Buy rating and $120 price target for Apple. The stock is down 9.5 percent so far in 2016.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.

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