Fed Skips Rate Cut Again—But Reveals Something We Haven't Seen Since 1993

Anticipation was sky-high heading into a politically charged Federal Reserve meeting, after months of relentless pressure from President Donald Trump to deliver rate cuts, but the central bank didn't budge.

Yet what unfolded behind closed doors revealed one of the most profound internal cracks in decades.

The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% in its July decision, as widely anticipated by the market.

Two Fed Governors Break Ranks

For the first time since 1993, two permanent members of the Fed's Board of Governors—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—explicitly dissented, favoring an immediate 25 basis-point rate cut.

That kind of internal division hasn't been seen since Alan Greenspan's tenure, when Governors Wayne Angell and Lawrence Lindsey opposed the Committee's easing bias in December of that year.

The dissent highlights growing friction not just between Chair Jerome Powell and Washington, but within his own leadership circle.

The Fed’s Official Line: Still Not Time to Cut

In its post-meeting statement, the Fed noted that "recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year."

Still, the labor market remains strong, the unemployment rate is low, and inflation "remains somewhat elevated."

The Committee reiterated its standard forward guidance, stating that it would continue to monitor data and stands ready to act "as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede" its goals. That leaves the door open for a potential shift in September.

Market Reactions

Traders now see a 62% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the September meeting, up from 58% earlier in the day, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) trimmed daily gains, while Treasury yields slipped.

Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), edged slightly higher but remained down by 0.8% for the day.

Wall Street held broadly steady, with the S&P 500 – tracked by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) – up 0.2% at 6,385 points.

Attention now turns to Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, where investors will parse every word for clues about the Fed's next steps.

For now, the Fed has said “not yet” on rate cuts—but the internal fractures suggest "not yet" could quickly become "soon" if economic momentum cools or political heat intensifies.

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.