Argus On Ventas: Looking For A Pullback To $62

Argus has maintained its Hold rating on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: VTR) as it expects growth to be constrained in the near term by asset sales and dilutive equity issuance, despite having opportunities in the $1 trillion senior housing and healthcare real estate market.

However, the brokerage said shares have performed strongly over the last year and appear fully valued by historical standards and relative to peers.

"[W]e do not expect FFO multiples to rise given the likely increase in interest rates in late 2016. We would look for a non-fundamental pullback to $62 as an opportunity to move the stock to our BUY list," analyst Jacob Kilstein wrote in a note.

Last month, Ventas lowered its 2016 FFO guidance to $4.05–$4.13 from $4.13–$4.21 per share, reflecting dilution from equity issued to help fund the Blackstone acquisition.

Related Link: Ventas' Performance Strong, But Not Enough To Raise Price In Future

However, the analyst reiterated its 2016 FFO estimate of $4.13 per share and raised its 2017 FFO estimate to $4.28 per share from $4.22 based on expectations for stronger operating results next year.

"We expect a clearer path for growth in 2017 after asset sales and dilutive equity issuance this year," Kilstein added.

Ventas shares have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last three months, rising 11 percent compared to a 4 percent increase in the broad market. They have also outperformed over the last year, with a gain of 34 percent versus a gain of 16 percent for the market.

At time of writing, shares of Ventas fell 2.61 percent on the day to $71.61.

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