MGM Stock Valuation Is 'Changing For The Better'

Hotels and casino company MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) boasts a complex valuation, but three notable catalysts mean it is now "changing for the better," according to Jefferies.

The MGM Resorts Analyst: David Katz upgraded MGM Resorts' stock rating from Hold to Buy with a price target lifted from $36 to $50.

The MGM Resorts Thesis: The main catalyst that will drive MGM's stock higher is a stronger macro outlook, especially for the tourist hub of Las Vegas, Katz wrote in the upgrade note. The continued rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine and distribution of stimulus checks bodes well for leisure travel and group travel.

Las Vegas' overall recovery should pick up momentum in the back half of 2021 and continue through 2022 and this looks good for MGM's 10 properties in the region, the analyst wrote. While the company's properties in Vegas accounted for 54% of 2019 EBITDAR, its exposure to Macau is less certain with that EBITDAR likely to trend at less than 85% of 2019 levels.

Related Link: BofA Upgrades MGM Resorts: 'Could Become A Story Stock'

The bullish case for MGM's stock is also based on a strong management team backed by the "operating-focused" CEO William Hornbuckle and CFO Jonathan Halkyard. In addition, recent notable changes to the board of directors include representations from Corvex and IAC/Interactivecorp (NASDAQ: IAC) that adds digital expertise.

Finally, early data from BetMGM is encouraging as BetMGM captured 38% of iGaming GGR and 20% of OSB handle in January.

"The combination of Opco and owned assets, partial stakes, coupled with the combination of geographies, structures and growth profiles and the disclosure thereof, has weighed on the valuation," Katz wrote. "We expect this to change."

WBA Price Action: Shares of MGM are up 4.66% at $40.79 at time of publication.

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(Photo: MGM)