Royal Caribbean's 2025 Upside May Be Limited, But 2026 Yield Growth Could Exceed Estimates

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) shares are trading lower on Wednesday.

The firm’s sky-high rally hits a speed bump as revised yield outlook tempers investor expectations for 2025.

Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove reiterated the Buy rating on the company, lowering the price forecast from $364 to $361.

Also Read: Royal Caribbean Sails Past Wall Street Expectations, New Launches ‘Performing Extremely Well’

After a 90% rally in Royal Caribbean shares over the past three months, expectations had risen sharply. However, the company's updated yield outlook didn't quite meet that elevated bar.

The downward revision of the high end of 2025 net yield guidance—from 4.6% to 4.0%—suggests that upside to earnings estimates may be more limited than many investors had hoped.

A shortening booking window—after already narrowing by one week for 2026 last quarter—isn't cause for alarm. The trend, she says, may prompt investors to pay close attention to Norwegian Cruise Line‘s (NYSE:NCLH) update later in the week for more clarity on cruise trends.

The setup for 2026 net yield growth could surpass current expectations, Dove says. Contributions from ships like Star, Excel, and Legend, as well as the incremental benefit from the Beach Club and the potential tailwind of a more stable macroeconomic environment.

To account for pre-opening costs related to Costa Maya, the Beach Club, and Celebrity River, Dove has slightly lowered 2026 EBITDA and EPS forecasts.

The full-year guidance does not factor in any additional acceleration in close-in demand—a detail Dove anticipates will be conservative and may ultimately leave room for upward revisions.

Pending more evidence to support this potential, Dove has slightly adjusted the FY25 net yield estimate downward from +4.4% to +4.0%.

Price Action: RCL shares are trading lower by 1.01% to $331.06 at last check Wednesday,

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