Trump, 'Inflation President' Of The Free World—Investors Run For Cover
Peter Schiff just crowned President Donald Trump the "Inflation President"—and love him or hate him, Wall Street might be starting to agree.
Track Wall Street’s current sentiment as reflected in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:ETF) here.
Tariffs, Spending And Rates: A Familiar Inflation Cocktail Returns
Since retaking office in January, Trump has doubled down on the same inflation-stoking policies that marked his first term: tariff threats, deficit spending and public pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
But this time, it's happening with inflation already above target, and markets are recalibrating.
From Gold To TIPS: Investors Quietly Shift Into Protection Mode
The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed back toward 4.5%, and inflation breakevens are ticking higher. Traders in the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP) and the SPDR Portfolio TIPS ETF (NYSE:SPIP) have started to re-enter positions after months on the sidelines.
Meanwhile, energy and commodity names are regaining favor. Trump's moves toward tariff escalation on Chinese goods could once again hit supply chains and drive up costs, giving a tailwind to oil, as tracked by investors in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE), metals tracked by the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSE:XME) and agriculture tracked by the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA).
Gold bulls are circling back, too. SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) has seen inflows rise as fiscal hawks warn of mounting debt risks.
And then there's the dollar. With Trump pushing for more rate cuts while spending ramps up, the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) has begun to wobble. A weaker dollar could further fuel imported inflation and ripple into emerging market volatility.
Trumpflation Being Priced In
Investors are not pricing in a repeat of 1970s-style inflation, but they are hedging against a new kind: politically driven, fiscally loose and globally disruptive.
Companies with high exposure to Chinese manufacturing—think Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT)—may need to reprice supply chain risks if tariffs escalate again.
Schiff might be trolling, but there's a deeper signal behind the nickname. If Trump's second term continues to unwind disinflationary tailwinds, markets may have to live with higher-for-longer pricing, and portfolios may need to adapt fast.
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