Bitcoin Rally Is In A 'High-Risk, High-Reward' Zone: Glassnode

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) surge above $104,000 has pushed the market into a "high-risk, high-reward" zone, with a structure that mirrors previous bull rallies, according to Glassnode's report on Tuesday.

What Happened: The report suggests that while profit-taking incentives are rising sharply, the rally could sustain momentum if demand from new participants continues to grow.

"The market has now entered a high-risk, high-reward structure, with 94% of supply in profit, NUPL nearing euphoric levels, and the Realized Profit/Loss ratio elevated at 2.38," the report said.

"However, if demand continues to build in response to the rally – particularly among new entrants – this structure has the potential to persist for several more weeks, similar to prior bullish phases."

Glassnode’s assessment positions the current market as delicately balanced.

On one side, elevated unrealized profits create strong incentives for investors to sell.

On the other, multiple indicators, across spot, futures and options markets, suggest ongoing accumulation and confidence.

The rally has been distinctly spot-driven, with aggressive net taker buy pressure reflecting strong conviction from buyers.

Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) flipped from -$149 million to +$9.91 million, while spot trading volume recovered to $7.89 billion after weeks of low participation.

These moves confirm that buyers are stepping in even at elevated price levels.

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Derivatives markets are playing catch-up.

Futures open interest rose from $33.3 billion to $34.1 billion, funding rates turned positive, and perpetual CVD jumped to +$504 million, indicating a build-up of long leverage.

Options markets mirrored this bullish bias, with open interest reaching $29.5 billion and skew metrics showing a strong tilt toward call buying.

Institutional participation via spot ETFs has also remained strong.

Net inflows dipped slightly from $1.36 billion to $1.25 billion but still sit well above long-term averages, according to the report.

What’s Next: The report tempers its optimism with some caution.

Key on-chain fundamentals, like active addresses and fee volumes are improving but remain modest compared to prior bull runs.

The share of "hot capital," or short-term speculative inflows, remains low at 29%, highlighting a hesitance from newer market participants to engage.

Bitcoin's price structure is bullish but precarious, supported by strong momentum but vulnerable if fresh demand fails to materialize.

Glassnode’s analysts underline that the next phase of the rally will depend not just on metrics, but on market psychology: whether enough new buyers are willing to step in and absorb realized profits from early holders.

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