Stocktober Surprises: 147 Years In Review

October is treading the middle-of-the-road, without any major pullback, keeping the indexes off the correction territory, or a notable move to the upside.

October: Typically A Strong Month

By historical trends, October is typically a better performing month for the markets. Argus pointed out in a research note this week that since 1980, the S&P 500 Index was in the green 25 times and down just 10 times, translating to 71 percentage in favor of a gain.

S&P 500 Down But Not Out

Thus far into the month, the S&P 500 Index has lost 1.34 percent. This pales before the 4.7 percent year-to-date gain for the index. Much of the gains of the year came from a commodity rally, earnings momentum and the expansionary policies pursued by the Fed and the rest of the major global central banks.

Can October's Last 2 Sessions Bail Out The S&P 500?

Is there a leeway for the markets to be back in the black for the month? With just two trading sessions left to see-off October in style, it looks a tall order. The markets haven't reacted much to the stellar Q3 data released earlier in the day and are up only modestly.

What is holding the markets down could be a mixed batch of earnings reports from some high profile companies such as Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Google's parent Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).

October Has Had Its Share Of Woes

"Seven of the 20 worst losses in the Dow's memory happened between Oct. 15 and Oct. 29, including the 1929 and 1987 crashes," a U.S. News article quoting Hilary Kramer, editor of the New York City-based GameChangers stock newsletter, said.

Past September-October Crashes

October is the home month to some of the worst market crashes in history, and to make matters worse, some of the September crashes had their impact play out into October.

Few Factors Impacting October 2016

• U.S. presidential elections due on November 8.
• Elections in some European countries such as Austria and a referendum in Italy.
• Fears that expansionary policies of central banks could eventually prove to be inflationary.

At last check, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) was up 0.27 percent at 213.75.