'Success Is Not Guaranteed' — Biographer Keach Hagey Says Sam Altman's Future At OpenAI Hangs On A Deal-Maker's Luck And Instability

"Success is not guaranteed," Wall Street Journal reporter Keach Hagey told TechCrunch in an interview last month. Her recently released biography, "The Optimist," tracks Sam Altman from St. Louis coder to OpenAI CEO. 

Hagey warned that Altman's fate depends on "a deal-maker's luck" after a board revolt showed how fragile OpenAI's nonprofit-over-for-profit structure remains. 

Path From Loopt To OpenAI

Altman learned to code at age 8 and co-founded the location app Loopt in 2005, selling it for $43.4 million in 2012. He later became president of startup accelerator Y Combinator in 2014, after serving as a part-time partner. While Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) and Stripe had already gone through YC before his presidency, he continued to support startups during their later stages of growth. 

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In 2015, Altman co-founded OpenAI as a nonprofit aiming to build safe artificial general intelligence. The lab added a capped-profit arm in 2019 so investors could earn up to 100%, according to Microsoft's 2023 investment blog.   

That deal opened a $13 billion pipeline to Microsoft Azure. Hagey said Altman's "once-in-a-generation storytelling" powers kept money flowing while he chased bold research goals.

Board Crisis Tests The Charter

On Nov. 17, 2023, the board removed Altman for not being "consistently candid," an OpenAI blog post stated. 

Within two days, more than 500 employees co-signed a letter threatening to join Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) unless the directors resigned, according to a leaked copy on X. By Nov. 20, 2023 the tally hit 700 signatures, pressuring directors to reverse the firing. 

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Altman returned as CEO on Nov. 29, 2023 and a new three-member board — Chair Bret Taylor, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo — took charge, the same blog post confirmed. A later review ordered by a special committee found no wrongdoing but urged clearer governance.

Hagey calls the five-day drama "the Blip," saying it proved staff loyalty rests more with Altman's deal skills than the nonprofit mission.

New Data Centers Demand Big Cash

OpenAI now plans to shift its for-profit arm into a public benefit corporation while keeping nonprofit control, an OpenAI structure post reported on May 5. Board chair Taylor said the move balances mission and money. However, the structural change must still be approved by legal authorities in California and Delaware before new investments can flow.

Meanwhile, Altman is securing global capacity. On May 22, Abu Dhabi firm G42 announced Stargate UAE, a 1-gigawatt data center that OpenAI and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) will run. Oracle said the company would supply extra cloud power and Nvidia (NVIDIA: NVDA) chips for OpenAI's U.S. builds. 

Hagey warned, "Investors will pause until governance and capital match," but she added that Altman "might be up to the challenge." 

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