Prediction Market

Cryptocurrency bettors projected a guilty verdict for rapper Sean “Diddy” Combs on sex trafficking charges, despite prosecutors dropping serious charges against him. What Happened: Odds that the rapper is convicted of sex trafficking or a related felony charge rose 3 percentage points...

The idea that tech mogul Elon Musk may start his own political party this year is finding some backing from cryptocurrency bookmakers. What happened: The odds that the Tesla and SpaceX CEO would create a political party in 2025 rose to 17% on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket. In fact...

Polymarket bettors profited handsomely after a federal court struck down President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs on Wednesday. What happened: The betting contract titled, "Will courts block Trump’s tariffs before June?" resolved to "Yes" on the decentralized prediction platform. The...

The odds of the U.S. entering a recession in 2025 have plummeted sharply on prediction platforms, aided by a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade conflict. What happened: Wagers in favor of a contract titled "US recession in 2025?" dropped from a peak of 66% in early April to 39% currently on...

Editor’s Note: A typographical error in the headline of this story has been corrected. Cryptocurrency bettors sharply upped the odds of a U.S. recession Thursday following President Donald Trump's worse-than-expected "Liberation Day" tariff rollout. What happened: The odds in favor of the...

Bettors on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket eyed a strong possibility that a new country would switch to the "Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) Standard" this year. What happened: A new contract titled, "Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?" went live on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based...

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, could potentially hit a staggering $125,000 by the end of this year. What Happened: According to predictions by betting platform Kalshi, an 85% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the close of 2024. The data also...

In the wake of successful predictions for the presidential election, cryptocurrency-based betting platform Polymarket disclosed its intentions to reestablish its prediction markets for U.S. users. What Happened: While talking about the company’s growth strategy in a CNBC interview on Thursday...

A Polymarket whale dumped around $3 million in bets on a Donald Trump victory after an influential trader hinted at taking profit on his positions tied to the former President. What Happened: The whale known as ‘larpas‘ sold $3 million worth of shares in Trump, according to a Monday X...

Influential economist Justin Wolfers noticed a significant shift in prediction market odds at Polymarket, sparking speculation about the declining influence of a whale heavily betting in favor of former President Donald Trump. What Happened: Wolfers, in his X post on Sunday, drew attention to the...

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump set an all-time high in presidential betting odds against Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket. What happened: Punters on the so-called decentralized prediction market gave the former President more than a 55% chance of regaining power, up from...

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, threw his support behind the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, emphasizing its value in providing accurate information and preventing misinformation. What Happened: On Monday, Buterin argued in favor of the so-called decentralized...

The odds of President Joe Biden finishing his tenure dropped dramatically on a cryptocurrency-based prediction market as the 81-year-old announced withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. What Happened: Polymarket, touted as the world's largest prediction market, saw odds of Biden completing the...